The high of the smartphone and tablet revolution is wearing off and consumers and the tech industry need a fix.
Sales of mobile devices are still growing but quickly leveling off.
Older gadgets like PCs are on the decline. Meanwhile, the technology
industry is rushing to figure out what the next big game changer will
be.
Major companies are betting big on small, wearable devices.
Google (GOOG, Fortune 500) on Tuesday announced a new version of its Android mobile operating system crafted just for wearable devices.
Called Android Wear, the OS will first appear on watches, and
eventually it will act as the company's platform for all types of
wearable devices.
Wearables represent a broad category that can include fitness trackers,
smart glasses, smartwatches, clothing with embedded sensors, tattoos
and even ingestible pills that gather data while zig zagging their way
through your lower intestine.
Most wearables are not meant to replace smartphones. Instead, they
work as satellite devices that amass useful data or relay notifications
from a primary mobile device. If they have screens, they can display
simplified versions of mobile apps.
Big companies and scrappy startups alike all been working on their
own wearable designs. The barrier to entry is low thanks to cheap
sensors and excited crowdfunding and venture capital backers. But
building upon an existing mobile operating system like Android or
Apple's (AAPL, Fortune 500)
iOS to wearables could speed up mass adoption, since app makers could
tweak their existing apps rather than write entirely new ones.
Google beat Apple to the punch with its Android Wear announcement
(for years, rumors have swirled that Apple is working on its own
smartwatch). Google said it is working with equipment manufacturers such
as Samsung, LG and Motorola to design watches that will use the Android
software.
Wearables are a big bet -- one that will likely result in a lot of
early failures. Google Glass, for instance, started as an exciting
futuristic product and has become an overhyped niche gadget with a
public relations problem (and it's still in beta).
Smartwatches might be less controversial, but that doesn't mean
there's a demand for them -- or many other wearables -- just yet.
"Right now there is a hype bubble around wearables," said J.P. Gownder of Forrester Research.
Gownder predicts that 80% to 90% of current wearable products will
fail but the category itself will succeed in the long run. The last
gadgets standing might bear little resemblance to the early experiments
we're seeing now. For example, smart glasses could take off for
businesses and focus on augmented reality displays, while the
consumer-targeted, at-a-glance Google Glass peters out.
In 2014, 90 million wearable devices will ship around the world,
according to ABI Research. The early wearable successes stories are sports, fitness and wellness devices
followed by healthcare technology. ABI's Joshua Flood says the reason
sports and related wearable devices have taken the early lead is that
their features and benefits are clear.
The usefulness of smartwatches, however, is still fuzzy. With the
right sensors, watches can act as beefed up fitness trackers. The
addition of a screen can save the wearer an arduous trip to their pocket
to look at their smartphone. Microphones and Google's voice control
technology can make a watch into a mini Siri-like device.
None of the use cases are exactly earth shattering, and for all the
attention the idea receives, there has yet to be a hit smartwatch
design.
"It is still unclear whether this device type will clear out a reasonable market for itself," said Flood.
Yet watches are familiar to consumers, and they could be a necessary
bridge device from fancy pedometers to some of the more "out-there"
wearables.
"Some of them require a significant amount of social change," said Forrester's Gownder.
One day, a wearable device might confirm your unique walk or
heartbeat and act as a form of unique identification, similar to a
fingerprint sensor. When you walk into a store, it could transmit
information about your size and clothing preferences to a beacon, and
when you walk out it could charge you automatically.
Those gadgets may be the big technology wave of the future. For now, watches represent the first baby step.
Those gadgets may be the big technology wave of the future. For now, watches represent the first baby step.